In the world of sports betting, understanding trends can significantly enhance a bettor’s strategy. Historically, public bettors have shown a tendency to wager on teams that have been performing well against the spread (ATS) while avoiding those that have not. This behavior is rooted in the basic human inclination to believe that past performance will continue into the future.
According to data compiled by Bet Labs, since 2005, teams that have covered the spread in at least three of their last five games have attracted a majority of spread tickets in 65.9% of regular season matchups when pitted against teams that have covered one or fewer of their last five games. This trend highlights how oddsmakers adjust their lines, often making it challenging for casual bettors to find value.
However, when it comes to postseason play, the dynamics shift. The team with a strong recent ATS record garners a majority of bets in only 52.2% of games. This apparent contradiction can be attributed to the nature of postseason competition. In these high-stakes situations, teams that have been covering the spread are frequently favored against underperforming opponents. Recreational bettors, drawn by the allure of betting on a covering favorite, often overlook the potential value in betting on underdogs. This tendency is particularly pronounced in conference tournaments, where teams are desperate to extend their seasons, leading to a more competitive atmosphere.
Oddsmakers are well aware of this behavioral tendency among casual bettors during the postseason. As a result, they are less inclined to inflate the betting lines as they might during the regular season. This creates a unique opportunity for savvy bettors to find value in teams that have been consistently covering the spread when matched against those that have not performed well.
Since 2005, teams that have demonstrated solid recent ATS form have achieved a record of 288 wins, 220 losses, and 11 pushes (56.7%) when going up against teams with poor recent ATS performance. For a bettor wagering $100 following this strategy, the potential profit amounts to an impressive $5,358. This simple yet effective betting system has proven to be a consistent winner, maintaining a .500 or better ATS record for 13 consecutive postseasons.
As the current postseason unfolds, this system has already made a strong start, going 2-0 ATS in the early rounds. Bettors looking to capitalize on this trend should keep an eye on upcoming matchups, including:
- Saint Peter’s (+2.5) vs. Marist – 5 p.m. ET, ESPN3
- Indiana State (-3) vs. Valparaiso – 7 p.m. ET, ESPN+
With these insights in mind, bettors can approach the postseason with a more informed perspective, leveraging historical trends to make strategic decisions. As always, it is crucial to conduct thorough research and remain disciplined in your betting strategies.
This analysis was originally published on ActionNetwork.com by John Ewing. Sports Insights is a part of The Action Network.
