The NBA is experiencing a remarkable surge in scoring this season, with teams averaging an impressive 110.9 points per game. This marks the highest scoring average since the 1984-85 season, which saw teams averaging 110.8 points. The increase in scoring can be attributed to a combination of factors, including a faster pace of play and improved offensive efficiency.
Currently, teams are averaging 100.1 possessions per 48 minutes, ranking as the 16th highest in the history of the league. Additionally, players are showcasing unprecedented scoring efficiency, with the league’s effective field goal percentage standing at .524, according to Basketball-Reference. This combination of factors has led to an exciting and high-scoring environment in the NBA.
On a recent episode of The Bill Simmons Podcast, Joe House, host of The Ringer’s House of Carbs podcast, expressed his belief that the increase in scoring would likely lead to successful betting on the over. To assess the validity of House’s assertion, a deep dive into the Bet Labs database was conducted.
The findings confirmed House’s instincts: bettors who wagered on the over have achieved a winning record this season. However, it’s important to note that the win rate has not been sufficient to overcome the associated juice. Currently, the over has a record of 447 wins, 434 losses, and 15 pushes (50.7%) this season. For a bettor wagering $100 on the over in each game, this translates to a loss of $966.
Interestingly, the trend of overs started strong in October, with a record of 65 wins, 44 losses, and 1 push (59.6%). However, since November, the overs have struggled, posting a record of 382 wins, 390 losses, and 14 pushes (49.5%). This decline can be attributed to adjustments made by oddsmakers in response to the high-scoring nature of the games.
Given the current landscape, it is not advisable to wager blindly on every over. Instead, there exists a more strategic approach for over bettors to consider. Since the tracking of money percentages began in the 2015-16 season, it has proven beneficial to pay attention to line movement, particularly when there is a higher percentage of money wagered on the over compared to the number of tickets sold.
Typically, the over attracts a majority of tickets, as public bettors enjoy rooting for high-scoring games. However, when there is an increase in the line despite a majority of tickets on the over, it indicates that not only recreational bettors are backing this option, but sharp bettors are as well. Aligning with professional bettors can be a smart strategy for those looking to build their bankroll.
This analysis highlights the dynamic nature of the NBA this season, where scoring is at an all-time high, and betting strategies must adapt accordingly. As the season progresses, understanding these trends and employing informed betting tactics will be crucial for success.
